Updates on Climate Change in 2023

Written By: Kasey Wade

Climate Change and the IPCC Report

The IPCC is an in-depth report brought out by member countries of the UN and is used to tackle questions about climate change and how it has been progressing. A new report is released every few years and is a gathering of scientific data from thousands of scientists and thousands of scientific papers released worldwide. The IPCC summarizes important climate change information for countries internationally but also for organizations that seek to stay updated about climate change. The IPCC itself is split between three working groups and a task force group depicted in Figure 1. This article focuses on summarizing the information found in the most recent 2023 IPCC Article 6 report to help keep the student body of Braden River informed.

Figure 1

What is Climate Change and Why is it an Issue?

     Climate change, to put it simply, is the change in the climate brought forth by human emissions of greenhouse gasses. Greenhouse gases or GHGs are gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and others. However, other ozone-depleting gasses also have an effect on our environment. Climate change has had a warming effect on our planet, since pre-industrial levels the global surface temperature has increased by 1.1°C above 1850-1900 levels. While this may seem rather small, this is exaggerated as regions closer to the equator experience greater extremes than just this 1.1°C. Further, the temperature increase over land is about 1.59°C while the temperature change over the ocean is about 0.88°C to make up the observed 1.1°C change. In the future, warming is expected to hit 1.4°C, 2.7°C, or 4.4°C depending on if humans have their emissions on a low, intermediate, or high pathway by 2080-2100. Anything above around 3°C would be a major tipping point and would be a detriment to global ecosystems (not to say 3°C is not bad - it still is). If humans do not increase our ambitions in reducing emissions, then warming will max out at around 2.8 [2.1 to 3.4] °C by 2100. With all this said, society must take increased steps to limit our warming.

Climate Change Risks For Humans

GHG emissions are continuing to increase due to unsustainable development and unsustainable lifestyles. These increases in emissions have had a profound impact - it has led to slight sea level rise, increased heat waves, droughts, disease, severe storms, and rain. These events are only expected to get worse as when combined these events have a “compound” effect which makes each other's impacts worse. For example, widespread droughts in California have been a cause for increased wildfires that have destroyed the land and made the land more vulnerable to future droughts as it will restart as a younger, weaker, ecosystem. It is for this reason that some climate change impacts have been titled “irreversible,” which means that while it might not literally be irreversible, in order for the ecosystem or environment to recover, it could take thousands of years. One such example is the permafrost (ice that has been frozen for thousands or even millions of years) within Greenland's ice sheet. Though some may believe climate change only affects the unfortunate few, “3.3 to 3.6 billion people live in contexts that are highly vulnerable to climate change” according to the IPCC report. That accounts for almost half of the global population; around 50% of the world also deals with some level of water scarcity which will be intensified with climate change. Florida faces increased heat extremes, as well as worsened hurricanes that will affect livelihoods and quality of life. Additionally, if humans do not work to help stop climate change, they face worsening risks because as warming increases, the effects get worse. Somewhere between 2°C and 3°C, the Greenland ice sheet will begin to melt, which will raise the sea level in Florida and submerge some coastal areas.

Future of Climate Change Risks on Humans

As climate change gets worse, “every increment of global warming will intensify multiple and concurrent hazards,” leading to an exponential pace of warming. This is mostly due to irreversible changes and tipping points, which are irreversible losses of important ecosystems or biosystems that help store CO2. As far as meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement( 1.5 degrees Celsius peak), even under the lowest emission track, humans are “more likely than not” going to exceed this goal. On top of this, climate change risks are projected to be worse than they were projected to be in the AR5 2020 IPCC report - especially for long-term impacts, the IPCC notes. As climate change gets worse, problems associated with the climate and non-climatic problems compound on each other, such as the flooding of roads decreasing the supply of goods. According to IPCC, “competition for land between urban expansion and food production, pandemics and conflict” are some factors that will create increased food insecurity and health problems. Furthermore, indigenous communities who live off the ecosystem will be disproportionately affected as ecosystems collapse from this cascade effect.

Figure 2

Climate Change Risks for Species

However, humans aren’t the only ones affected by climate change - animal and plant species are struggling to adapt to the changes forced upon them because of climate change. Species that have reached their adaptation limits, or are slow to adapt, face extinction as global temperature rises. “Hundreds of local species” have already been lost due to heat extremes. While this might not sound important, the loss of species and decreased livable environments will decrease biodiversity and destabilize ecosystems. If the food web starts to collapse, animal species will lose their food sources as animals they depend on go extinct, leaving humans to face increasing extinctions and collapse of ecosystems as it no longer becomes possible for species to live there. This is detrimental to all life as biodiversity increases ecosystem resilience. Ecosystems as a whole are what provide humans with food, resources, and clean air.

Climate Change Risks for Food Production

Current infrastructure in southern, equatorial places are expected to reach extremes, drying out crops and ruining farm production. Meanwhile, more Northern farms are expected to get more rain and experience fewer extremes, but not in a proportionate amount. Governments will be forced to use spending that could be spent on climate change mitigation on relocating important agricultural industries. Further, ocean warming and CO2 in the water have led to acidification, bleaching coral reefs, and decreasing production in fisheries globally.

Figure 3

Climate Change Risks for Ice and Oceans

Sea levels are going to rise in the future due to deep ice warming according to the IPCC. In the next 2000 years, sea levels will rise anywhere between 2 and 6 meters depending on how well humans limit warming to 1.5°C. If warming is not quickly limited once it surpasses 2°C-3°C, then in the coming thousand years, the entire Greenland ice sheet is expected to melt. This will cause a sea level rise of approximately 2 meters or about 6 feet. As warming increases, ice across the world in Greenland and the Antarctic will increasingly melt and contribute to sea level rise. Additionally, the Atlantic circulation of cold and warm temperature weather could collapse, which would greatly affect weather and ecosystems across the Atlantic, though this is not expected to happen before 2100. 

Climate Change Risks for Cities

Cities are expected to have increased financial and infrastructure loss as a result of increased storms, flooding, and heat extremes. Livelihood and health in cities are expected to decrease, especially in vulnerable places in the world.

Climate Change Risks for Developing Countries

Some groups, however, are more vulnerable than others due to developmental reasons. In developing nations, “squatter settlements”, smaller settlements, or informal settlements are more common. These settlements have lower income and less access to resources such as food or low-emission technologies, making them more vulnerable to food insecurity and other natural disasters. According to the IPCC, high-vulnerability places can be affected “15x” more than low-vulnerability places.

Figure 4

Climate Change Adaptation Progress

Climate change adaptation and trying to mitigate losses from disasters has progressed “across all sectors and regions, with documented benefits and varying effectiveness.” However, despite progress, humans need more deep mitigation this could be in the form of: “cultivar improvements, on-farm water management, and storage, soil moisture conservation, irrigation, agroforestry, community-based adaptation, farm and landscape level diversification in agriculture, sustainable land management approaches, use of agroecological principles and practices and other approaches that work with natural processes, urban greening, restoration of wetlands and upstream forest ecosystems have been effective in reducing flood risks and urban heat.” Other forms may include early warning systems, levies to decrease the risk of flooding near term, climate services, and government safety nets. However, despite these systems existing, they are not fully covered and do not prevent all losses - especially financial ones. Some cities and ecosystems reach what is called an adaptation limit, where further adaptation is not possible due to time or resource constraints or are ineffectively implemented. The IPCC lists 6 main indicators being “limited resources, lack of private sector and citizen engagement, insufficient mobilization of finance (including for research), low climate literacy, lack of political commitment, limited research and/or slow and low uptake of adaptation science, and low sense of urgency.”

Climate Change Adaptation Needs to be Increased

Although there are already goals to limit warming to 1.5°C, finance adaptation plans are cooperating internationally to fix climate change goals. Furthermore, “evidence suggests that mitigation policies have led to several24 Gt CO2-eq yr-1 of avoided global emissions” from reduced forestation, and aggressive climate initiatives worldwide. Further GHG growth rates have slowed from 2.1% between 2000-2009 to 1.3% between 2010-2019 (WRI Report). However, almost all of these plans and policies fall short of what is needed or what is expected and need to be upscaled. According to the WRI, “even if countries achieved their climate pledges” (which they are not on track for) “WRI finds that they would reduce GHG emissions by just 7% from 2019 levels by 2030, in contrast to the 43% needed for limiting warming to 1.5°C”. Therefore, more ambitious implementation of resources in climate change is needed either with governments, industries, citizens, or all the above. Luckily, because of the pervasiveness of climate change policies across the world, efficient low-emission systems are developing, which make “maintaining emission-intensive systems in some regions and sectors more expensive than transitioning to low-emission systems” according to the IPCC. If humans do not increase their ambition in climate change policy, warming is expected to reach anywhere between 2.1°C-3.4°C by 2100. This would collapse many worldwide ecosystems and would be enough to thaw the Greenland ice sheet, as well as increase natural disasters. Societies could do this by spending less on protection from climate threats, which is what most climate change spending is on, and more on reducing current emissions.

Figure 5

Goal for Solving Climate Change

The main objective of solving climate change is to reach net zero GHG emissions, which means that humans are not emitting any GHGs that would cause an increase in the global temperature. If humans were to sustain this, global temperatures would decrease and stabilize. Even if society overshoots its peak goals, it can still reduce emissions to reach the same end goal. However, tipping points and irreversible changes would make a return from an overshoot less feasible. It is important to maintain global ecosystems. Humans must keep about “30-50%” of our ecosystems, water, and freshwater systems alive. Additionally, to keep up with 1.5°C of warming, humans would have to focus on carbon removal rather than just decreasing emissions. According to the IPCC, “these approaches encompass both natural solutions, such as sequestering and storing carbon in trees and soil, as well as more nascent technologies that pull carbon dioxide directly from the air”.

Urgent Climate Change Action Needed

In order to make a change in climate change, it is prudent humans worldwide must make quick, deep GHG reduction decisions; as the IPCC points out, “There is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all”. This is especially true because the changes humans make now will not be felt for another decade. International cooperation is necessary to implement a mix of adaptation and mitigative measures to stop climate change and its risks; this could be through the use of financing, improved technologies, and special emphasis on helping more vulnerable regions. Taking this action now is becoming more important with each passing year. “Without urgent, effective, and equitable mitigation and adaptation actions, climate change increasingly threatens ecosystems, biodiversity, and the livelihoods, health and well-being of current and future generations.” By increasing green energy use, societies can improve not only climate change, but health, air quality, equity, and employment as well.

Near-Term Action Needed for Climate Change

If governments implement near-term actions soon, societies can still avoid losses associated with climate change, such as “cost escalation, locked-in infrastructure, and reduced feasibility.” This also includes benefits such as improved health and air quality, “improving agricultural productivity, innovation, health and well-being, food security, livelihood, and biodiversity conservation.” While initial investment would be high, this could be mitigated through policies, and it could be justified given that mitigation costs are estimated to be less than the economic benefits when limiting warming to 2°C or more.

Long-Term Adaptation Plans

It is important to learn that while humans adapt, they do not think exclusively about solving short-term protection. For example, while sea walls may help keep out water, increased flooding and rain from climate change could trap water in the city within the sea walls (similar to the New Orleans fish bowl). To create effective systems, “maladaptation must be avoided by using flexible, multi-sectoral, inclusive, long-term planning and implementation of adaptation actions”.

Figure 6

Green Options for Solving Climate Change

Green energy options involve those that shift away from fossil fuels but are efficient, renewable, and have zero GHG emissions. According to IPCC, “large contributions to emissions reductions with costs less than USD 20 tCO2-eq-1 come from solar and wind energy, energy efficiency improvements, and methane emissions reductions (coal mining, oil and gas, waste).” In transport, biofuels and electric vehicles can also serve as a large reduction for CO2 emissions. Additional carbon removal systems can include “reforestation, improved forest management, soil carbon sequestration, peatland restoration, conservation, and coastal blue carbon management which can enhance biodiversity and ecosystem functions, employment and local livelihoods.” This is an effective way people can get personally involved in the environment: through volunteer work. It is important that governments deploy low-emission infrastructure and low-emission technologies to change the day-to-day carbon output of humans to accommodate net zero emissions. This low-emission infrastructure looks like “green/ natural and blue infrastructure which support carbon uptake and storage and either singly or when combined with grey infrastructure can reduce energy use and risk from extreme events such as heatwaves, flooding, heavy precipitation, and droughts, while generating co-benefits for health, well-being and livelihoods”.

How to Help Fossil-Fuel-Dependent Communities

Some communities rely on fossil fuels for jobs and for revenue; so, getting rid of fossil fuels, it would be a detriment to society. This trade-off is addressed by the IPCC, explaining that energy diversification, investment in limiting poverty, and improved living standards can be reasonably achieved. Furthermore, “capacity building” which is increasing the ability of a community to develop, “finance, governance, technology transfer, investments, development…social equity…and vulnerable populations” are important sectors to help solve climate change for governments.

Figure 7

Climate Change Solutions Through Equity

Inclusion and equity with vulnerable and developing countries are crucial to solving climate change problems. Systems that can solve this are wealth distribution, poverty spending, and safety nets. Public services centered around climate protection are also necessary for mitigating losses from increased climate risks.

Climate Change Solutions Through Governance

Governments need to take significant near-term action by prioritizing climate change policies and setting achievable and measurable targets. Providing relief to sustainable tech and public spending is among some of the feasible governmental initiatives that can shift economies to sustainability in the near term. Another governmental program is carbon taxiing, which involves taxiing products based on their carbon emissions or other GHG emissions. 

Climate Change Solutions Through Finance, Tech, and International Co-op

The IPCC report ends by explaining the importance of “finance, technology, and international cooperation are critical enablers for accelerated climate action.” Finance is important for shifting to a sustainable economy, increasing adaptation limits, and reducing risks from the climate. To limit warming to 2°C, investments will need to increase 3-6 fold. While there is enough money globally to do this, there are “barriers” to redirecting this money into climate mitigation. Increased warming leads to lowered adaptation limits - hence the need for financing. Communities with limited freshwater resources, such as smaller islands or small communities, may have a hard time as they will have no other means to get water. Technology is important in the widespread adoption of low-emission options, and international cooperation is the glue to ensure that all regions get the tools and financing they need to be able to address climate change. It is invariably important that the public does not leave anybody out of the climate change issue.

What Can You Do?

Don't panic; climate change is NOT the end of the world, nor is it going to be the death of humanity. That being said, climate change is destroying ecosystems and food systems, increasing vulnerability to disasters across the world which needs our action. For students eligible to vote, legislation is always an important factor. Voice your opinion in the polls by voting for pro-climate change policies. You can also attend protest rallies for eco-friendly policies that force the hands of unwilling organizations or industries. However, for the average person, the best thing you can do is live your life sustainably, following the saying “reduce, reuse, recycle.” Try to add live plants in the home, use less “stuff,” and recycle or compost. Furthermore, it is important to support green options in purchasing decisions to help stop industries, the main enemy of sustainable growth. While shopping, buy green-certified labeled products such as “green seal certified” or “certified by the USDA.” These labels on ALL product categories can help shift demands to green products. Lastly, get involved in restoration projects and other volunteer work in the community through Manatee County or other organizations. There are already groups working to solve climate change, and all they need are people willing to put in the work. By doing these things, society has a chance of slowing down climate warming to save as many ecosystems as they can before it is too late.

Quick References

Warming Right Now

1.1 Celsius above 1850-1900 levels

Larger increases over land (1.59 [1.34 to 1.83]°C) than over the ocean (0.88 [0.68 to 1.01]°C)

Where does Warming Come From?

79% of global greenhouse gasses are from energy, transport, and buildings.

22% of greenhouse gasses are from agriculture, forestry, and others.

Future of Warming?

Between 2080 and 2100, our degree of warming is estimated at 1.4°C, 2.7°C, or 4.4°C, depending on if humans have our emissions on a low, intermediate, or high pathway.

Anything above 3°C would be a tipping point, and detrimental to global ecosystems.

Assuming no increase in ambition, our planet will have median global warming of 2.8 [2.1 to 3.4] °C by 2100

Works Cited

“About — IPCC.” IPCC, www.ipcc.ch/about.

Calvin, Katherine, et al. IPCC, 2023: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (Eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. 25 July 2023, https://doi.org/10.59327/ipcc/ar6-9789291691647.

“Figures: AR6 Synthesis Report.” IPCC, www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/figures.

Schumer, Sophie Boehm Clea. “10 Big Findings From the 2023 IPCC Report on Climate Change.” World Resources Institute, www.wri.org/insights/2023-ipcc-ar6-synthesis-report-climate-change-findings.